> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.driven.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Macro Trading Setup

> How to configure Driven for macro and thematic trading: a Playbook, event tracking, and research workflows tuned to top-down themes, rates, and policy-driven opportunities.

This guide is a worked example: configuring a Driven Agent for a macro and thematic trading strategy. Macro trading is top-down: it starts from a view on rates, policy, or a structural theme and works down to the names that express it, which is the opposite direction from bottom-up stock picking.

For other styles, see [Value investing setup](/guides/strategy/value-investing-setup) and [Growth investing setup](/guides/strategy/growth-investing-setup).

## Step 1: Create a dedicated Agent

```text theme={null}
Create an agent named "Macro Trading" for a top-down macro and thematic strategy.
```

## Step 2: Build the Playbook

```text theme={null}
Add to this portfolio's Playbook:

Philosophy: Top-down macro and thematic trading. Start from a macro or structural view, then find the cleanest ways to express it. Hold while the thesis and the data support it.

Approach: form views on interest rates, inflation, policy, and structural themes. Identify the sectors and names most exposed in each direction. Size positions by conviction and define what data would invalidate each view.

What I look for: clear macro or thematic drivers, identifiable winners and losers, and a way to monitor whether the thesis is playing out.

What I avoid: positions with no clear macro link, themes that are already fully priced in, and views I can't define a falsification test for.

Risk and sizing: size by conviction, always define the invalidation condition, and be willing to exit when the data turns against the thesis.

Research style: prioritize the strength of the macro driver, what's already priced in, the cleanest expressions of the theme, and the specific data to monitor. Frame everything in scenarios and probabilities, not single predictions.
```

## Step 3: Develop a thematic view

Use [Deep Research](/skills/deep-research) to build the top-down thesis:

```text theme={null}
Run Deep Research on [macro theme]. Explain the dynamics, the likely paths and their probabilities, what's already priced in, and which sectors and names are most exposed in each direction.
```

See [Macro research](/guides/research/macro-research) for the full workflow.

## Step 4: Find the cleanest expressions

```text theme={null}
For this theme, identify the cleanest ways to express the view in public markets, the names with the most direct exposure and the fewest offsetting factors, on both the long and short side.
```

## Step 5: Track the events that matter

Macro trading lives and dies by the calendar. Set up an [event tracker](/guides/scheduled/macro-event-tracker):

```text theme={null}
Each week, give me the key macro events coming up, what's expected, what's priced in, and how each could affect my themes and positions.
```

## Step 6: Monitor the thesis against the data

```text theme={null}
For each of my macro themes, track the incoming data and commentary. Flag anything that confirms the thesis, anything that challenges it, and tell me when the invalidation condition is approaching.
```

The discipline of macro trading is defining, in advance, what would tell you you are wrong, and then watching for it.

## Common mistakes

* **No falsification test.** A macro view you cannot disprove is a belief, not a tradeable thesis. Define what would make you exit.
* **Ignoring what's priced in.** The market often anticipates macro shifts. The opportunity is in the gap between consensus and reality, not the event itself.
* **Treating macro as certainty.** Macro is probabilistic. Size and frame positions accordingly, and avoid betting everything on a single forecast.

## Related

* [Macro research](/guides/research/macro-research) — the research workflow
* [Macro event tracker](/guides/scheduled/macro-event-tracker) — track the calendar
* [Deep Research](/skills/deep-research) — build the thesis
* [Build your Playbook](/guides/strategy/build-your-playbook) — the Playbook fundamentals